Tag Archives: Bracketology

What is a Quadrant and why does it matter?

Have you wondered what a Quadrant 1 win actually is?  Do you want to know how your team stacks up? The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is looking at teams’ schedule results differently this year.

Continue reading

Bracket Projection 12-28-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Duke keeps the overall top seed
  • St. Bonaventure and Boise State move up to 10-seeds
  • 12-seed Houston replaced SMU as projected American Athletic Conference champion
  • 12-seed New Mexico State replaced Grand Canyon as projected Western Athletic Conference champion
1 Duke 1 Villanova
16 Rider 16 Lipscomb
8 Wichita St. 8 Clemson
9 Auburn 9 Notre Dame
5 Tennessee 5 Creighton
12 Western Ky. 12 Houston
4 Oklahoma 4 Florida St.
13 Murray St. 13 Texas-Arlington
6 Louisville 6 Arizona
11 St. Mary’s (CA) 11 Oklahoma St.
3 Seton Hall 3 North Carolina
14 East Tenn. St. 14 Penn
7 Oregon 7 Butler
10 Michigan 10 Penn St.
2 West Virginia 2 Arizona St.
15 Vermont 15 Towson
1 Purdue 1 Michigan St.
16 Hampton/Prairie View 16 Bucknell/Wagner
8 Cincinnati 8 St. John’s (NY)
9 Maryland 9 UNLV
5 Texas A&M 5 Gonzaga
12 New Mexico St. 12 South Dakota
4 TCU 4 Virginia
13 Stephen F. Austin 13 Portland St.
6 Nevada 6 Virginia Tech
11 UNI/Texas 11 Minnesota/Miami (FL)
3 Xavier 3 Arkansas
14 Buffalo 14 Northern Ky.
7 SMU 7 Kentucky
10 St. Bonaventure 10 Boise St.
2 Kansas 2 Texas Tech
15 Liberty 15 UC Santa Barbara

Bracket Projection 12-23-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Duke moves up to the overall top seed
  • Texas moves in with an impressive win over Alabama
  • Wake Forest moved up to the First Four Out, but they can make a big jump by beating (current 5-seed) Tennessee today
  • St. Bonaventure replaced Rhode Island as the projected automatic bid from the Atlantic 10
1 Duke 1 Michigan St.
16 Liberty 16 Rider
8 Clemson 8 St. John’s (NY)
9 Notre Dame 9 Missouri
5 Gonzaga 5 Kentucky
12 Northwestern/Texas 12 Western Ky.
4 Florida St. 4 TCU
13 East Tenn. St. 13 Texas-Arlington
6 Arizona 6 Texas A&M
11 Ohio St. 11 Boise St.
3 Kansas 3 Xavier
14 Portland St. 14 Northern Ky.
7 Oregon 7 SMU
10 Miami (FL) 10 Auburn
2 Purdue 2 Arizona St.
15 Towson 15 Wagner
1 West Virginia 1 Villanova
16 Hampton/Prairie View 16 Bucknell/Lipscomb
8 Cincinnati 8 Butler
9 UNLV 9 Michigan
5 Tennessee 5 Oklahoma
12 Murray St. 12 South Dakota
4 Creighton 4 Virginia
13 Stephen F. Austin 13 Grand Canyon
6 Virginia Tech 6 Nevada
11 St. Bonaventure 11 St. Mary’s (CA)/Oklahoma St.
3 North Carolina 3 Arkansas
14 Vermont 14 Buffalo
7 Louisville 7 Wichita St.
10 Penn St. 10 Maryland
2 Seton Hall 2 Texas Tech
15 Penn 15 UC Santa Barbara

Bracket Projection 12-21-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Villanova 1 West Virginia
16 Penn 16 Lipscomb
8 Louisville 8 Cincinnati
9 Miami (FL) 9 Auburn
5 Arizona 5 Texas A&M
12 Minnesota/Rhode Island 12 Western Ky.
4 North Carolina 4 Creighton
13 Idaho 13 Grand Canyon
6 Oklahoma 6 SMU
11 Florida 11 Clemson
3 Seton Hall 3 Xavier
14 Northern Ky. 14 Liberty
7 Florida St. 7 Virginia Tech
10 Maryland 10 Northwestern
2 Texas Tech 2 Arizona St.
15 Vermont 15 Towson
1 Michigan St. 1 Duke
16 Hampton/Prairie View 16 Army/Rider
8 UNLV 8 Missouri
9 St. Bonaventure 9 Penn St.
5 Virginia 5 Kentucky
12 Murray St. 12 South Dakota
4 Tennessee 4 Gonzaga
13 UNC Greensboro 13 Texas-Arlington
6 Oregon 6 Wichita St.
11 Ohio St./Boise St. 11 UNI
3 TCU 3 Arkansas
14 Stephen F. Austin 14 Buffalo
7 St. John’s (NY) 7 Nevada
10 Oklahoma St. 10 Michigan
2 Kansas 2 Purdue
15 UC Santa Barbara 15 Wagner

Bracket Projection 12-13-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Michigan St. 1 Villanova
16 Jacksonville St. 16 Penn
8 Boise St. 8 SMU
9 Florida 9 Missouri
5 Florida St. 5 Wichita St.
12 Minnesota/Rhode Island 12 Butler
4 Tennessee 4 Gonzaga
13 Wagner 13 Towson
6 Nevada 6 UNLV
11 Ohio St. 11 Clemson
3 Seton Hall 3 TCU
14 Texas-Arlington 14 FGCU
7 Louisville 7 UNI
10 Notre Dame 10 Creighton
2 Purdue 2 Texas Tech
15 Stephen F. Austin 15 Idaho
1 Arizona St. 1 West Virginia
16 N.C. A&T/Bucknell 16 Rider/Central Mich.
8 Cincinnati 8 Oklahoma
9 Auburn 9 Oregon
5 St. John’s (NY) 5 Virginia Tech
12 St. Bonaventure 12 Western Ky.
4 Arkansas 4 Texas A&M
13 Grand Canyon 13 East Tenn. St.
6 Virginia 6 Miami (FL)
11 Michigan/Penn St. 11 South Dakota
3 North Carolina 3 Kansas
14 Liberty 14 Valparaiso
7 Arizona 7 Kentucky
10 Oklahoma St. 10 Maryland
2 Duke 2 Xavier
15 Vermont 15 UC Santa Barbara

Bracket Projection 12-10-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Michigan St. 1 Villanova
16 Central Mich. 16 UC Davis
8 Oklahoma 8 Miami (FL)
9 Auburn 9 Notre Dame
5 Texas A&M 5 St. John’s (NY)
12 South Dakota 12 Butler
4 Tennessee 4 Gonzaga
13 St. Bonaventure 13 Murray St.
6 Virginia Tech 6 Nevada
11 Mississippi St. 11 Ohio St.
3 TCU 3 North Carolina
14 Grand Canyon 14 Towson
7 Virginia 7 UNLV
10 Minnesota 10 Maryland
2 Duke 2 Texas Tech
15 Valparaiso 15 FGCU
1 Arizona St. 1 West Virginia
16 Bucknell/Rider 16 Albany (NY)/Penn
8 Missouri 8 Arizona
9 Florida 9 Louisville
5 UNI 5 Wichita St.
12 Western Ky. 12 Rhode Island
4 Florida St. 4 Arkansas
13 Wagner 13 UNC Greensboro
6 SMU 6 Oregon
11 Texas/Penn St. 11 Oklahoma St./Cincinnati
3 Seton Hall 3 Kansas
14 Stephen F. Austin 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Boise St. 7 Kentucky
10 Clemson 10 Creighton
2 Purdue 2 Xavier
15 Liberty 15 Idaho

Bracket Projection 12-4-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • There are quite a few differences right now, but it’s still early in the season.  It’ll be a lot of fun to watch how it plays out.
1 Kansas 1 Villanova
16 Liberty 16 Buffalo
8 Oklahoma St. 8 Louisville
9 San Diego St. 9 Missouri
5 UNLV 5 SMU
12 Texas 12 Oklahoma/Arizona
4 Kentucky 4 Gonzaga
13 Towson 13 South Dakota
6 Notre Dame 6 Florida St.
11 Murray St. 11 Oregon
3 TCU 3 Minnesota
14 Mercer 14 Vermont
7 Miami (FL) 7 Wichita St.
10 Temple 10 Arkansas
2 Arizona St. 2 Texas A&M
15 Stephen F. Austin 15 FGCU
1 Michigan St. 1 West Virginia
16 N.C. A&T/Prairie View 16 Rider/Bucknell
8 Boise St. 8 St. John’s (NY)
9 Auburn 9 Cincinnati
5 Virginia 5 Florida
12 Maryland 12 Virginia Tech/Maryland
4 Xavier 4 Purdue
13 Texas-Arlington 13 Western Ky.
6 North Carolina 6 UNI
11 Providence 11 Clemson
3 Texas Tech 3 Seton Hall
14 UC Davis 14 Penn
7 Rhode Island 7 Nevada
10 Penn St. 10 Valparaiso
2 Duke 2 Tennessee
15 Wagner 15 Idaho

Bracket Projection 2-27-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  They’ve slipped from a 5- to a 6-seed after losing to Iowa State.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are.
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.  Kansas beat Texas in Austin by 10 over the weekend.  Kent State only beat Texas by 5, so there’s that I guess.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is slowly slipping and is now a consensus 8-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them now in the First Four Out of the tournament.
  • Maryland finally dropped to a consensus 7-seed.  They lost at home by 14 to Iowa (whose record is 16-13) – yet another loss that supports my position for Maryland not making the tournament.  They’ve now lost 5 of their last 7 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
  • BYU and Michigan State have been on the bubble for a while and are now in.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Creighton 8 Middle Tenn.
9 Rhode Island 9 Michigan
5 Purdue 5 Duke
12 BYU/Louisiana Tech 12 Michigan St./TCU
4 Florida St. 4 St. Mary’s (CA)
13 Princeton 13 Vermont
6 Wisconsin 6 Oklahoma St.
11 East Tenn. St. 11 Marquette
3 Florida 3 Villanova
14 New Mexico St. 14 Valparaiso
7 Notre Dame 7 Houston
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 Wichita St. 2 North Carolina
15 Ohio 15 Winthrop
1 Louisville 1 Kentucky
16 Texas Southern/Wagner 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 South Carolina 8 Texas Tech
9 VCU 9 Indiana
5 Butler 5 Arizona
12 Nevada 12 UNC Wilmington
4 Kansas 4 SMU
13 Bucknell 13 Monmouth
6 Iowa St. 6 Baylor
11 Northwestern 11 Utah
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Texas-Arlington 14 Belmont
7 Minnesota 7 Dayton
10 Wake Forest 10 Arkansas
2 Virginia 2 UCLA
15 FGCU 15 IPFW

 

Bubble Teams 2-23-17

These teams are the In-But-On-The-Bubble, First Four In, First Four Out, and Next Four Out from my bracket projection.

My bracket/bubble team projections are based on computer rankings from TheRankerPit.com, which have proven better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread.

Tennessee and TCU fell out.  Syracuse and Louisiana Tech (winner of 6 straight) moved in.  Xavier continues to lose ground and is now the last team in.  Maryland is still overrated and is still out.

In-But-On-The-Bubble

  • Miami (FL)
  • California
  • Marquette
  • East Tenn. State
  • Arkansas
  • Northwestern
  • Kansas State
  • Wake Forest

Last Four In

  • Utah
  • Louisiana Tech
  • Syracuse
  • Xavier

First Four Out

  • TCU
  • Maryland
  • Illinois State
  • BYU

Next Four Out

  • Tennessee
  • Michigan State
  • USC
  • Georgia

 

Bracket Projection 2-23-17

Projected seeding is based on team ratings from TheRankerPit.com.

A few noteworthy differences with consensus projections from the Bracketology community (found at bracketmatrix.com)

  • Baylor has finally slipped to a consensus 2-seed.  I’ve projected them as a 4- or 5-seed for weeks.  Let’s see if they continue to slide as everyone’s perception of them catches up to how good they actually are
  • Kansas is still a consensus 1-seed, but their team rating puts them at a 4-seed.  According to the model’s ratings, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 and deserve the 1-seed.
  • I have Wichita State as a 2-seed – way higher than the consensus 10-seed.  Wichita State’s rating is probably a bit inflated from all of the large scoring margins accomplished against their relatively weak conference competition.
  • Xavier is a consensus 7-seed, but their slide in my ratings puts them as the last team in at a 12-seed
  • Maryland is still a consensus 6-seed.  Their loss last night to Minnesota at home supports my position for Maryland in the First Four Out.  They’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, which also supports my assertion of Maryland being one of the most overrated teams.
1 Gonzaga 1 West Virginia
16 Eastern Wash. 16 UC Irvine
8 Minnesota 8 Middle Tenn.
9 South Carolina 9 VCU
5 Duke 5 SMU
12 Utah/Louisiana Tech 12 Syracuse/Xavier
4 Florida St. 4 Kansas
13 Nevada 13 Vermont
6 Arizona 6 Butler
11 Arkansas 11 Northwestern
3 Oregon 3 Cincinnati
14 Belmont 14 Texas-Arlington
7 Creighton 7 Iowa St.
10 Miami (FL) 10 California
2 UCLA 2 Wichita St.
15 New Mexico St. 15 Winthrop
1 Kentucky 1 North Carolina
16 Wagner/Texas Southern 16 A&M-Corpus Chris/N.C. Central
8 Michigan 8 Texas Tech
9 Indiana 9 Rhode Island
5 Baylor 5 Wisconsin
12 Monmouth 12 UNC Wilmington
4 St. Mary’s (CA) 4 Purdue
13 Valparaiso 13 Princeton
6 Oklahoma St. 6 Notre Dame
11 Wake Forest 11 Kansas St.
3 Virginia 3 Villanova
14 Ohio 14 Bucknell
7 Houston 7 Dayton
10 East Tenn. St. 10 Marquette
2 Florida 2 Louisville
15 IPFW 15 FGCU