This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the champion correctly (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. Good thing you’re reading this post.
Using our sweet computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results. Read on to see this year’s most likely teams to win the NCAA Tournament.
Continue readingThe most important key to winning your NCAA Tournament bracket pool is correctly picking the champion. Comparing this year’s top teams with the DNA of past champions, I’ve narrowed this list of contenders down to 6 teams. All of the following teams have the DNA of a champion. Pick one of these teams to win it all.
Continue readingThese teams meet the AP Poll rank-criteria that all but 2 of the last 30 Champions have met. Once the tournament field is finalized on Selection Sunday (3/17), we will be able to narrow this group down to the few true contenders with my Champ DNA test.
Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out. New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. Only 67% of 1-3 seeds make the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: four of these teams have a greater than 50% chance of going home early…
My definition of a Dark Horse Final Four Team: a 5+ seed team that reaches the Final Four. 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4. Most interesting observation: three of these teams are from the East Region…
My definition of a Bracket Buster: an 6+ seed team that reaches the Elite 8. Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5. So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Bracket Busters.
My definition of a Cinderella team: an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16. Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.