Tag Archives: ncaa tournament bracket

Dark Horse Final Four Teams – 2021

A dark horse Final Four team is a 5+ seed that reaches the Final Four

Even though 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, 9 of the last 10 tournaments have had at least 1 5+ seed in the Final Four. The following teams have the best chances among this year’s “longshots.”

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Most Likely Bracket Busters – 2021

Bracket Buster definition:  a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8

Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – about 81% of all Elite 8 teams were 1-5 seeds.  So when a 6+ seed reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. 

Last tournament was the only one in the last 10 that did not have a bracket buster. Here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters (teams with at least 10% chance):

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Most Likely First Round Upsets 2021

It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 11-Syracuse and 10-Rutgers are favorites to win their First Round games.

Unfortunately, the prospect of a 12-5 upset isn’t as high as it usually is. We can normally count on at least one. In 2019, we had three and the fourth 12-seed only lost by one! This year, it’s basically a 50/50 chance that we’ll have any.

Here are the double-digit teams with at least a 20% chance to win their First Round game:

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Bracket News – 9 Feb 2020