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Top 2022 NCAA Tournament Championship Contenders

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.

This year’s model has been trained and the simulation of the tournament completed. According to the simulation results, these are the teams with the best chances to win the tournament.

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2022 Providence and other good-seed-bad-computer-rank teams from past tournaments

“I’m sorry, Dave. Providence isn’t as good as their record and projected seed would indicate.”

With 2 weeks and some change until Selection Sunday, Providence has built an excellent resume. Projected as a 4-seed in the Bracket Matrix, Providence is:

  • 22-3 overall
  • 8-2 road/neutral record
  • First place in a strong (potentially 7 tournament bids) Big East
  • 5-2 Q1 record
  • 12-3 Q1/Q2 record

…and yet, receive little-to-no love from the computers. Providence is ranked 28, 31, 41, and 46 in the NET, Sagarin, BPI (ESPN), and KenPom rankings – not even close to what we’d expect from a 4-seed.

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Top Final Four Contenders in the West Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. 

No surprise – Gonzaga’s the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is USC’s not insignificant 8% chance of winning the region. There is a 90% chance the winner will be one of five teams…

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Top Final Four Contenders in the East Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. 

Michigan is the only team with a greater than 50% chance of winning their region. Problem is, Michigan won’t be full strength – at least for the first two rounds – due to Isaiah Livers’ injury. Soooo… huge caveat in this region. I suggest discounting Michigan’s chances and boosting everyone else’s. By how much? I wish I could tell you. According to Jeff Borzello, Michigan, in the past 2 seasons, is 33-9 with a healthy Livers and 6-6 otherwise. All 12 games without him came last season.

There is an 85% chance the winner will be one of five teams…

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2021 NCAA Tournament Team Computer Ratings by Region

Use these tables to compare team computer ratings for the teams that are in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. These ratings have predictive value and can be used to make relative team strength comparisons. Check out computer rankings for these teams here.

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Tournament Winners Have LOTS of Q1 Wins, But…

Does it really matter how many Quadrant 1 wins a team has?  Do Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins give any indication of a team’s title chances in the NCAA Tournament?

Yes!  But we only have RPI-based quadrant history. Because the new NET rankings are new and cannot be calculated for past seasons, we can’t analyze how useful they are yet.

So, looking at RPI-based Q1 wins, there are currently only three teams that have enough…

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The Quarterfinal Rule – teams that will not win the championship

The Quarterfinal Rule states that any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament WILL NOT win the national championship.  This rule has never been broken.

2017 Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention

  • Louisville – Lost to Duke in the ACC Quarterfinals
  • Kansas – Lost to TCU in the Big 12 Quarterfinals
  • Baylor – Lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 Quarterfinals
  • Virginia – Lost to Notre Dame in the ACC Quarterfinals
  • Butler – Lost to Xavier in the Big East Quarterfinals
  • Purdue – Lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Quarterfinals
  • Florida – Lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC Quarterfinals