We already know teams from mid-major conferences don’t win the NCAA Tournament. More than that, though, we can set a minimum conference strength for a team to have a shot at winning it all.
Continue readingCategory Archives: Contenders
Final Four Teams Win Away From Home
Winning Away From Home
So your team is pretty good this year. Congrats. It’s still February and realistically there are 20 or so CBB squads out there that have a shot at making a run. Maybe even a deep run, a Cinderella run. So, what is the one thing that your team needs to be paying attention to right now? Indeed, what is one of the primary historical key indicators that if your team achieves now, you can confidently stand around that watercooler one month out and say, “Seriously, we have a shot to not only go to the Elite Eight, but this is the year we are a Final Four team!”
It’s simpler than you might think, and while it should be noted that by itself this indicator is not a fool proof identifier, it is incredibly common among Final Four participants. It is simply this:
Final Four teams win on the road all season long.
Continue readingOne of These Teams Will Win the 2022 NCAA Tournament
Last week’s AP Poll narrowed our list of contenders to 12 teams. 30 of the last 32 champs ranked in the top 12, seven weeks before the tournament started. At the end of the regular season, we’ll be able to narrow the list to the key handful of teams that are built like a champ.
Continue readingComputer Model Composite – NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team
I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Michigan State, Wichita State, Mt St Mary’s, and Appalachian State win their First Four games.
I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!
IMPORTANT NOTE: the probabilities for 14-Colgate are significantly inflated by the shocking numbers the model from The Power Rank gives them.
I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
Continue readingHow Top-Heavy is each Region?
Your chances of winning your bracket pool improve dramatically with the more correct Final Four picks you have. Historically, 61% of all Final Four teams have been a 1- or 2-seed. Here’s a look at the combined probability of each region having a 1- or 2-seed champ.
Continue readingTop Final Four Contenders in the Midwest Region
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
Whether Illinois will win the Midwest Region is basically a coin flip. This is the only region where a double-digit seed is one of the more likely teams to win it. There is an 82% chance the winner will be one of five teams…
Continue readingTop Final Four Contenders From the “Wide Open” South Region
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 52% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There is a 95% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…
Continue readingTop 2021 NCAA Tournament Championship Contenders
To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. You’ll be glad you saw this post!
I enhanced my super amazing tournament computer model, and the simulation results are in.
Continue readingPure Gold Bracket Info and Tips Coming Your Way!
While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!
Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!
NCAA Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker
The wonderful Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker is back! (click here)
What is a Quadrant?
This is the third year the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is using a quadrant classification system as one of their selection criteria. The quadrant classification breaks down a team’s schedule and results in four quadrants with the purpose of placing greater emphasis on games played on neutral courts and in true road environments. The quadrant breakdown, based on NET rank and where the game is played, is as follows:
Q1 Wins Matter
Besides being a major decision criteria for the Selection Committee, the number of Q1 wins has shown to be a strong predictor of tournament success. We only have one season of NET rankings, so I’m talking Q1 wins based on the old RPI rankings. Click here to see what the magic number is and a little more on the subject (I’ll update soon with more data).