Category Archives: Contenders

Computer Model Composite – NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Michigan State, Wichita State, Mt St Mary’s, and Appalachian State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

IMPORTANT NOTE: the probabilities for 14-Colgate are significantly inflated by the shocking numbers the model from The Power Rank gives them.

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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How Top-Heavy is each Region?

Your chances of winning your bracket pool improve dramatically with the more correct Final Four picks you have. Historically, 61% of all Final Four teams have been a 1- or 2-seed. Here’s a look at the combined probability of each region having a 1- or 2-seed champ.

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Top Final Four Contenders in the Midwest Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. 

Whether Illinois will win the Midwest Region is basically a coin flip. This is the only region where a double-digit seed is one of the more likely teams to win it. There is an 82% chance the winner will be one of five teams…

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Top Final Four Contenders From the “Wide Open” South Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. 

The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 52% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There is a 95% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…

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Top 2021 NCAA Tournament Championship Contenders

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. You’ll be glad you saw this post!

I enhanced my super amazing tournament computer model, and the simulation results are in.

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Pure Gold Bracket Info and Tips Coming Your Way!

While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!

Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!

NCAA Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker

The wonderful Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker is back! (click here)

What is a Quadrant?

This is the third year the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is using a quadrant classification system as one of their selection criteria.  The quadrant classification breaks down a team’s schedule and results in four quadrants with the purpose of placing greater emphasis on games played on neutral courts and in true road environments. The quadrant breakdown, based on NET rank and where the game is played, is as follows:

Q1 Wins Matter

Besides being a major decision criteria for the Selection Committee, the number of Q1 wins has shown to be a strong predictor of tournament success. We only have one season of NET rankings, so I’m talking Q1 wins based on the old RPI rankings. Click here to see what the magic number is and a little more on the subject (I’ll update soon with more data).

NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

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Top 6 Most Likely Midwest Region Winners

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Interestingly, the model pegs the Midwest Region as a two-team race, giving a slight edge to a team that doesn’t even have Champ DNA. Check out the table below to see who might keep Kansas from taking the region…

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