Tag Archives: bracket pretenders

Remember the Quarterfinal Rule

As the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The are no exceptions to the Quarterfinal Rule.  I’ll update this post as top teams are eliminated before their conference semifinals. 

2023 Teams Eliminated from National Title Contention

Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits – 2021

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  This year, we have 2 top-seeded teams that are likely not going to survive the first weekend (greater than 50% chance). Here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. 

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Pure Gold Bracket Info and Tips Coming Your Way!

While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!

Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!

NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

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Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…

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Remember the Quarterfinal Rule

As the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The Quarterfinal Rule has never been broken.  I’ll update this post as top teams are eliminated before their conference semifinals. 

2019 Teams Eliminated from National Title Contention

LSU

Texas Tech

Purdue

Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.  Only 67% of 1-3 seeds make the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  four of these teams have a greater than 50% chance of going home early…

Continue reading →