Tag Archives: college basketball upsets

Computer Model Composite – 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Most Likely First Round Upsets 2022

It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 10-Loyola-Chicago and 10-Miami are favorites to win their First Round games.

10-seeds have some very strong model results, translating to a 95% chance that we’ll see multiple 10-seeds advancing to the Second Round. Chances are looking good for multiple 11-6 upsets, too – about 50% chance we’ll see more than 1. Last year we only had one 12-5 upset, and this year there’s about a 74% chance we’ll have at least 1, but the likelihood of more than that is only around 33%.

Here are the double-digit teams with at least a 20% chance to win their First Round game.

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Bracket News – 29 December 2021