Tag Archives: march madness contender

Bracket News – 3 Feb 2020

Bracket News – 30 Jan 2020

NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

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Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…

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Dark Horse Final Four Teams

Dark Horse Final Four Team:  a 5+ seeded team that reaches the Final Four

As 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, the following teams have the best chances among the “longshots.” 

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Top 6 Most Likely Midwest Region Winners

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Interestingly, the model pegs the Midwest Region as a two-team race, giving a slight edge to a team that doesn’t even have Champ DNA. Check out the table below to see who might keep Kansas from taking the region…

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Top 5 Most Likely South Region Winners

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Virginia’s the favorite, but three other teams have a decent shot at a Final Four run…

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Most Likely East Region Winners – Who Can Challenge Duke?

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Duke is a big favorite to win the East Region, but our sweet model only gives them a 56% chance to do it. The following table gives the chances of the other top contenders in the East.

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Most Likely Team to Win the "Wide Open" West Region

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

The West Region is the only one without a team with Champ DNA. Historically this means the region is wide open. (Last two such regions were won by 11-seed Loyola-Chicago and 7-seed South Carolina). Our model gives about an 80% chance the winner will be one of three teams…

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