As the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The Quarterfinal Rule has never been broken. I’ll update this post as top teams are eliminated before their conference semifinals.
2019 Teams Eliminated from National Title Contention
These teams meet the AP Poll rank-criteria that all but 2 of the last 30 Champions have met. Once the tournament field is finalized on Selection Sunday (3/17), we will be able to narrow this group down to the few true contenders with my Champ DNA test.
Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out. New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. Only 67% of 1-3 seeds make the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: four of these teams have a greater than 50% chance of going home early…
My definition of a Dark Horse Final Four Team: a 5+ seed team that reaches the Final Four. 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4. Most interesting observation: three of these teams are from the East Region…
My definition of a Bracket Buster: an 6+ seed team that reaches the Elite 8. Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5. So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Bracket Busters.
My definition of a Cinderella team: an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16. Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. Among the most likely upsets in the first round, we’ve got a nice mix of 10, 11, 12, and 13 seeds. Only two teams, though, have a greater than 50% chance of winning their first game.
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. You like Michigan State to reach the Final Four? You might want to reconsider…