This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.
Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…
Continue readingDark Horse Final Four Team: a 5+ seeded team that reaches the Final Four
As 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, the following teams have the best chances among the “longshots.”
Bracket Buster definition: a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8
Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5. So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters.
Continue readingMy definition of a Cinderella team: an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16. Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.
Continue readingIncrease your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes.
Our artificially intelligent model has identified 12 teams that have a greater than 20% chance of pulling of an upset in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Only two teams are expected (greater than 50% chance) to win their first game.
Continue readingIncrease your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. Click here to see just how amazing.
Interestingly, the model pegs the Midwest Region as a two-team race, giving a slight edge to a team that doesn’t even have Champ DNA. Check out the table below to see who might keep Kansas from taking the region…
Continue readingIncrease your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. Click here to see just how amazing.
Virginia’s the favorite, but three other teams have a decent shot at a Final Four run…
Continue readingIncrease your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. Click here to see just how amazing.
Duke is a big favorite to win the East Region, but our sweet model only gives them a 56% chance to do it. The following table gives the chances of the other top contenders in the East.
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