- Early NCAA Tournament sleepers, busts and most likely champion
- Which conferences make the most of their NCAA tournament seeds?
- Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation
- Five NCAA tournament bubble teams that need strong finishes to avoid missing field
- Starting Five: No. 1 Baylor hosting No. 3 Kansas in Big 12 tops college basketball weekend
- Fallen Preseason Contenders Still Capable of a March Madness Run
Tag Archives: ncaa tournament predictions
Bracket News – 21 Feb 2020
- 68 predictions for the 2020 NCAA tournament, made in February
- 2020 NCAA tournament bracketology: Why Big East teams could win on Selection Sunday
- Bracketology 2020: Buy or sell Providence, Cincinnati, VT, South Carolina, and NC State
- Can Villanova get back to the Final Four earlier than expected?
- Q&A With Joe Lunardi: His 2020 Cinderella, Final Four Favorite, No. 1 Seed In Trouble
- The 25 all-time best characters of the NCAA Tournament
- Party like it’s 1989? Why this Seton Hall team looks Final Four bound
- Stumbling Alabama looking to follow rival Auburn’s 2019 model into earning NCAA bid
- BYU Is Scorching The Nets From Even Farther Back
Bracket News – 29 Jan 2020
- Mid-Majors To Watch Before March Madness | College Basketball Futures
- Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large contention
- Do college basketball conference titles predict success in the NCAA tournament?
- SoCon midseason report: After peak season, league even deeper this year
- Where Alabama’s NCAA tournament hopes stand after 4 straight wins
- Bracketology: Tigers hopes of NCAA in jeopardy
- 3 teams poised to end March Madness droughts, and 3 streaks in danger
- NCAA Tournament 2020: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams with February Approaching
Bracket News – 28 Jan 2020
- NCAA tournament: Top 16 reveal date, time, TV channel, what to know
- 8 teams most likely to land a No. 1 seed in March Madness
- Who are the biggest overachievers, underachievers in top leagues?
- Rutgers vs Illinois, overrated teams and other key questions
- Michigan, NC State and DePaul going the wrong way
- Three Things To Know: Iowa comes back, Christian Braun arrives, three-bid ACC?
- Chaotic college basketball teams worth your attention ahead of NCAA Tournament
- 15 teams that can get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament
- 7 programs with strong cases to be college basketball’s next 1st-time champion
- Know Thy Mid-Major: Saint Mary’s Gaels
- Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large contention
New Page – Compare Metrics for Projected Tournament Teams
Check out the new Projected NCAA Tournament Team Comparison page. It includes two tables showing a list of teams along with some of the metrics the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will use as selection criteria, including NET, Kenpom, and Sagarin ranks, along with NET Quadrant records.
One table includes teams projected to make the tournament according to the Bracket Matrix, a compilation of bracketologists’ projections from across the internet.
The other table includes all NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball teams.
NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons
This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
- BR – BracketResearch.com
- 538
- SN – Sporting News
- KP –
- kenpom
- TPR – The Power Rank
- ESPN – ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI)
- PS – PlayoffStatus.com
Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament
Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever
Continue readingMost Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.
Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…
Continue readingDark Horse Final Four Teams
Dark Horse Final Four Team: a 5+ seeded team that reaches the Final Four
As 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, the following teams have the best chances among the “longshots.”
Top 6 Most Likely Bracket Busters
Bracket Buster definition: a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8
Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5. So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters.
Continue reading