Tag Archives: ncaa tournament predictions

New Page – Compare Metrics for Projected Tournament Teams

Check out the new Projected NCAA Tournament Team Comparison page. It includes two tables showing a list of teams along with some of the metrics the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will use as selection criteria, including NET, Kenpom, and Sagarin ranks, along with NET Quadrant records.

One table includes teams projected to make the tournament according to the Bracket Matrix, a compilation of bracketologists’ projections from across the internet.

The other table includes all NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball teams.

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NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

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This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

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Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

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Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

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An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…

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Dark Horse Final Four Teams

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Dark Horse Final Four Team:  a 5+ seeded team that reaches the Final Four

As 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, the following teams have the best chances among the “longshots.” 

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Top 6 Most Likely Bracket Busters

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Bracket Buster definition:  a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8

Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5.  So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters.

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Top 5 Most Likely Cinderellas

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My definition of a Cinderella team:  an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16.  Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.

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Most Likely First Round Upsets

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Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model.  Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes.

Our artificially intelligent model has identified 12 teams that have a greater than 20% chance of pulling of an upset in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Only two teams are expected (greater than 50% chance) to win their first game.

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Top 6 Most Likely Midwest Region Winners

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Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Interestingly, the model pegs the Midwest Region as a two-team race, giving a slight edge to a team that doesn’t even have Champ DNA. Check out the table below to see who might keep Kansas from taking the region…

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Top 5 Most Likely South Region Winners

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Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Virginia’s the favorite, but three other teams have a decent shot at a Final Four run…

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