2024 NCAA Tournament Early Busts – Model Results

An early bust is a 1-3 seed that loses in the first weekend of the tournament – failing to advance to the Sweet 16. Historically, we average seeing four Early Busts every year.

Four top-3 seeds have at least a 40% chance of being eliminated this weekend. ESPN seems a little gun shy on identifying potential Early Busts…

The Models


  • Streaky Kentucky is a high risk pick for a deep run in the tournament
  • Based on these probabilities, ESPN is the only model not in line with historic averages. Expected # of Early Busts:
    • BR: 4.1
    • ESPN: 3.1
    • POM: 4.2
    • Tor: 4.0
  • 1-North Carolina is more likely to exit the tournament early than three 2-seeds and a 3-seed. Yikes!