Tag Archives: bracket buster

The Eye Test Vs. Data Analytics

I went to a game last night just for fun.  The teams are irrelevant for the purpose of this conversation; suffice to say that both were middling, neither has a shot at the NCAA tournament and none of it has implications of national merit.  But man, it’s almost March and it’s college basketball, it was a blast!  15,590 fans just having a great time sending off the seniors and hoping for a shift in fortunes during the Conference Tournament.

The beauty of CBB is that anyone can be a Cinderella.  As I watched the event, the home team played the best game of their season.  They were balanced on offense, they shutdown the other team’s two main threats.  They rebounded well, controlled their turnovers and staved off multiple run attempts of their foe.  At one point they were up by 21 and I thought to myself, “Man, if they play like this, who knows, three good games in the conference tourney and they could slip into an automatic bid.” I was impressed and drinking the Kool-aid.

Continue reading →

Computer Model Composite – 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

Continue reading →

Most Likely Bracket Busters – 2022

Bracket Buster definition: a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8.

Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – about 81% of all Elite 8 teams were 1-5 seeds. So when a 6+ seed reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted.

Last tournament, there were three bracket busters! Here are this year’s most likely bracket busters (teams with at least a 8% chance):

Continue reading →

Most Likely Bracket Busters – 2021

Bracket Buster definition:  a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8

Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – about 81% of all Elite 8 teams were 1-5 seeds.  So when a 6+ seed reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. 

Last tournament was the only one in the last 10 that did not have a bracket buster. Here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters (teams with at least 10% chance):

Continue reading →

Pure Gold Bracket Info and Tips Coming Your Way!

While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!

Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!

NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

Continue reading →

Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

Continue reading →

Top 6 Most Likely Bracket Busters

Bracket Buster definition:  a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8

Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5.  So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters.

Continue reading →

Top 5 Most Likely Cinderellas

My definition of a Cinderella team:  an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16.  Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.

Continue reading →

Most Likely First Round Upsets

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model.  Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes.

Our artificially intelligent model has identified 12 teams that have a greater than 20% chance of pulling of an upset in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Only two teams are expected (greater than 50% chance) to win their first game.

Continue reading →