Welcome to week 15 of the college basketball season. 15 is really not terribly significant, but two weeks ago was. So let’s go in the way back machine, speed it up to 86 mph and look at the AP standings from week 13. Then let’s figure out why this ranking is important.
Continue readingI’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.
I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!
I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
No surprise – Gonzaga’s the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is 5-Connecticut’s not insignificant 12% chance of winning the region. There is a 91% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…
Continue readingWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
The East Region is home to the double digit seed with the highest Final Four probability. It’s only 4%, but 10-San Francisco has best chances of a Final Four run of any double-digit seed in the bracket.
Continue readingWin your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
The Midwest Region is the most top heavy in the bracket – there is a 63% chance the winner is one of the top 2 seeds. We also find the weakest 3 and 4 seeds here – the 5 and 6 seeds are more likely to win the region.
Continue readingTo win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.
This year’s model has been trained and the simulation of the tournament completed. According to the simulation results, these are the teams with the best chances to win the tournament.
Continue readingWe already know teams from mid-major conferences don’t win the NCAA Tournament. More than that, though, we can set a minimum conference strength for a team to have a shot at winning it all.
Continue reading
So your team is pretty good this year. Congrats. It’s still February and realistically there are 20 or so CBB squads out there that have a shot at making a run. Maybe even a deep run, a Cinderella run. So, what is the one thing that your team needs to be paying attention to right now? Indeed, what is one of the primary historical key indicators that if your team achieves now, you can confidently stand around that watercooler one month out and say, “Seriously, we have a shot to not only go to the Elite Eight, but this is the year we are a Final Four team!”
It’s simpler than you might think, and while it should be noted that by itself this indicator is not a fool proof identifier, it is incredibly common among Final Four participants. It is simply this:
Final Four teams win on the road all season long.
Continue readingWhile I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!
Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!