While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!
This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.
Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. Click here to see just how amazing.
Interestingly, the model pegs the Midwest Region as a two-team race, giving a slight edge to a team that doesn’t even have Champ DNA. Check out the table below to see who might keep Kansas from taking the region…
A thorough analysis of past national championship teams has shown that they have certain traits and characteristics in common. Visit the DNA of a National Championship Team page for a full explanation of those attributes. Scroll all the way to the bottom of this post if you just want to see a list of this year’s contenders.
Caution: Not all teams that fit this description win the championship. Every year there are between 3 and 10 contenders with the right DNA that don’t win it all and might even make an early exit from the tournament (for example, 2016 Michigan State losing in the First Round or Kentucky’s second round exit in 2004).