Tag Archives: Cinderella teams

The Eye Test Vs. Data Analytics

I went to a game last night just for fun.  The teams are irrelevant for the purpose of this conversation; suffice to say that both were middling, neither has a shot at the NCAA tournament and none of it has implications of national merit.  But man, it’s almost March and it’s college basketball, it was a blast!  15,590 fans just having a great time sending off the seniors and hoping for a shift in fortunes during the Conference Tournament.

The beauty of CBB is that anyone can be a Cinderella.  As I watched the event, the home team played the best game of their season.  They were balanced on offense, they shutdown the other team’s two main threats.  They rebounded well, controlled their turnovers and staved off multiple run attempts of their foe.  At one point they were up by 21 and I thought to myself, “Man, if they play like this, who knows, three good games in the conference tourney and they could slip into an automatic bid.” I was impressed and drinking the Kool-aid.

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Computer Model Composite – 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Most Likely Cinderellas – 2022

Let’s call a Cinderella team a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16. This means they would pull off at least one but probably two upsets in the first weekend and have glory and praise heaped upon them for the next week before they play in the Sweet 16. Almost every year, we see at least one Cinderella. Only the 1995 and 2007 tournaments didn’t have one. Last year we had four!

Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. Here are this year’s most likely Cinderellas (i.e. teams with at least a 15% chance of reaching the Sweet 16):

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Most Likely Cinderellas – 2021

Let’s call a Cinderella team a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16. This means they would pull of at least one but probably two upsets in the first weekend and have glory and praise heaped upon them for the next week before they play in the Sweet 16.  Almost every year, we see at least one Cinderella. Only the 1995 and 2007 tournaments didn’t have one. Last year there was one – the one that I predicted had the best chance – 12-seed Oregon.

Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Here are this year’s most likely Cinderellas (i.e. teams with at least 10% chance or reaching the Sweet 16):

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Pure Gold Bracket Info and Tips Coming Your Way!

While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!

Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!

Top 5 Most Likely Cinderellas

My definition of a Cinderella team:  an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16.  Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.

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Top 10 Most Likely Bracket Busters

My definition of a Bracket Buster:  an 6+ seed team that reaches the Elite 8.  Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5.  So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Bracket Busters.

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Top 5 Most Likely Cinderella Teams

My definition of a Cinderella team:  an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16.  Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.

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