Tag Archives: NCAA championship prediction

Remember the Quarterfinal Rule

As the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The are no exceptions to the Quarterfinal Rule.  I’ll update this post as top teams are eliminated before their conference semifinals. 

2023 Teams Eliminated from National Title Contention

Computer Model Composite – NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Michigan State, Wichita State, Mt St Mary’s, and Appalachian State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

IMPORTANT NOTE: the probabilities for 14-Colgate are significantly inflated by the shocking numbers the model from The Power Rank gives them.

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

Continue reading →

Top Final Four Contenders in the West Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. 

No surprise – Gonzaga’s the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is USC’s not insignificant 8% chance of winning the region. There is a 90% chance the winner will be one of five teams…

Continue reading →

Top 2021 NCAA Tournament Championship Contenders

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. You’ll be glad you saw this post!

I enhanced my super amazing tournament computer model, and the simulation results are in.

Continue reading →

Bracket News – 21 Feb 2020

Bracket News – 29 Jan 2020

Bracket News – 28 Jan 2020

NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

Continue reading →

Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

Continue reading →

Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…

Continue reading →