Tag Archives: NCAA championship prediction

NCAA Bracket Prediction Probability Comparisons

This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Bracket Tips for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

Summary of tips and advice to (hopefully) help you win your NCAA Tournament bracket pool/challenge/whatever

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Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. 

Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…

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Top NCAA Tournament Championship Probabilities

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the champion correctly (in standard scoring formats).  The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.  Good thing you’re reading this post.

Using our sweet computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results.   Read on to see this year’s most likely teams to win the NCAA Tournament.

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Official List of 2019 National Championship Contenders

The most important key to winning your NCAA Tournament bracket pool is correctly picking the champion. Comparing this year’s top teams with the DNA of past champions, I’ve narrowed this list of contenders down to 6 teams. All of the following teams have the DNA of a champion. Pick one of these teams to win it all.

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Remember the Quarterfinal Rule

As the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The Quarterfinal Rule has never been broken.  I’ll update this post as top teams are eliminated before their conference semifinals. 

2019 Teams Eliminated from National Title Contention

LSU

Texas Tech

Purdue

One of These Teams Will Win the 2019 NCAA Tournament

These teams meet the AP Poll rank-criteria that all but 2 of the last 30 Champions have met. Once the tournament field is finalized on Selection Sunday (3/17), we will be able to narrow this group down to the few true contenders with my Champ DNA test.

2019 Early List of Championship Contenders

  1. Tennessee
  2. Duke
  3. Virginia
  4. Gonzaga
  5. Michigan
  6. Michigan State
  7. Kentucky
  8. Nevada
  9. North Carolina
  10. Marquette
  11. Kansas
  12. Virginia Tech

Updated Bracket Probabilities

Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out.  New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.

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Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.  Only 67% of 1-3 seeds make the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  four of these teams have a greater than 50% chance of going home early…

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Dark Horse Final Four Teams

My definition of a Dark Horse Final Four Team:  a 5+ seed team that reaches the Final Four.  83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4.  Most interesting observation:  three of these teams are from the East Region…

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