2024 First Round Upsets – Model Results

A First Round upset is when a double-digit seed wins their First Round game. I wonder why the ESPN model isn’t on board with the only upset the other models give a greater than 50% chance of happening…

The Models


  • Three models love 11-New Mexico’s chances of beating 6-Clemson in the First Round
  • Most likely 12-5 upset: 2 models like 12-James Madison, while the other two like Grand Canyon more
  • 13-Samford is the consensus most likely 13-4 upset pick
  • Most likely 14-3 upset is all over the place – no consensus, but all 4 are in the same ballpark (avg 11.6-13.3%)
  • If we have a 15-2 upset for the 4th year in a row, WKU is the clear consensus pick to beat 2-Marquette. 8.4% is very high for a 15-seed.
  • According to the models, the most likely 1-seed to fall to a 16-seed is Purdue (losing to Montana St)… LOL