Tag Archives: ncaa tournament first round upsets

Top 10 Most Likely Bracket Busters

My definition of a Bracket Buster:  an 6+ seed team that reaches the Elite 8.  Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5.  So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Bracket Busters.

Continue reading

Top 5 Most Likely Cinderella Teams

My definition of a Cinderella team:  an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16.  Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are the most likely Cinderellas.

Continue reading

Top 5 Most Likely First Round Upsets

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model.  Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. Among the most likely upsets in the first round, we’ve got a nice mix of 10, 11, 12, and 13 seeds.  Only two teams, though, have a greater than 50% chance of winning their first game.

Continue reading