2024 West Region Model Results

The 2024 NCAA Tournament West Region is the most wide open. All four models agree – the 1-seed (North Carolina) isn’t even the favorite to win the region!

The Models


  • The consensus favorite, 2-Arizona, has less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning the region
  • Even though ESPN isn’t with the other three, 11-New Mexico is, by far, the most likely double-digit seed to win their region.
  • 9-Michigan St and 11-New Mexico are the top two dark horse (6+ seed) Final Four candidates
  • 4-Alabama has a wide range of probabilities across the models: 7.2 – 14.5%. Makes sense if you’ve seen Bama play as much as I have. They’re definitely a wild card.