Tag Archives: NCAA championship contender

Computer Model Composite – 2022 NCAA Bracket Prediction Probabilities for Every Team

I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their First Four games.

I’ll show the numbers in a few different looks – Champs, First Round Upsets, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Busts, Dark Horse Final Four, and a composite for All Teams/All Rounds – get your scrolling fingers ready!

I was able to find predictions at the following websites:

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Dark Horse Final Four Teams – 2022

A dark horse Final Four team is a 5+ seed that reaches the Final Four.

Even though 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, 10 of the last 11 tournaments have had at least 1 5+ seed in the Final Four. The following teams have the best chances among this year’s “longshots.”

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Most Likely First Round Upsets 2022

It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 10-Loyola-Chicago and 10-Miami are favorites to win their First Round games.

10-seeds have some very strong model results, translating to a 95% chance that we’ll see multiple 10-seeds advancing to the Second Round. Chances are looking good for multiple 11-6 upsets, too – about 50% chance we’ll see more than 1. Last year we only had one 12-5 upset, and this year there’s about a 74% chance we’ll have at least 1, but the likelihood of more than that is only around 33%.

Here are the double-digit teams with at least a 20% chance to win their First Round game.

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Top Final Four Contenders in the West Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

No surprise – Gonzaga’s the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is 5-Connecticut’s not insignificant 12% chance of winning the region. There is a 91% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…

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Top Final Four Contenders in the East Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

The East Region is home to the double digit seed with the highest Final Four probability. It’s only 4%, but 10-San Francisco has best chances of a Final Four run of any double-digit seed in the bracket.

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Top Final Four Contenders in the Midwest Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

The Midwest Region is the most top heavy in the bracket – there is a 63% chance the winner is one of the top 2 seeds. We also find the weakest 3 and 4 seeds here – the 5 and 6 seeds are more likely to win the region.

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Top 2022 NCAA Tournament Championship Contenders

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.

This year’s model has been trained and the simulation of the tournament completed. According to the simulation results, these are the teams with the best chances to win the tournament.

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Top Final Four Contenders From the “Wide Open” South Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 42% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There is a 95% chance the winner will be one of nine teams…

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Only The Best Conferences Produce NCAA Tournament Champs

We already know teams from mid-major conferences don’t win the NCAA Tournament. More than that, though, we can set a minimum conference strength for a team to have a shot at winning it all.

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Final Four Teams Win Away From Home

Loyola-Chicago won 78% of their games away from home before an epic Final Four run in 2018

Winning Away From Home

So your team is pretty good this year.  Congrats.  It’s still February and realistically there are 20 or so CBB squads out there that have a shot at making a run.  Maybe even a deep run, a Cinderella run.  So, what is the one thing that your team needs to be paying attention to right now?  Indeed, what is one of the primary historical key indicators that if your team achieves now, you can confidently stand around that watercooler one month out and say, “Seriously, we have a shot to not only go to the Elite Eight, but this is the year we are a Final Four team!”

It’s simpler than you might think, and while it should be noted that by itself this indicator is not a fool proof identifier, it is incredibly common among Final Four participants.  It is simply this:

Final Four teams win on the road all season long. 

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