Most Likely First Round Upsets 2022

It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 10-Loyola-Chicago and 10-Miami are favorites to win their First Round games.

10-seeds have some very strong model results, translating to a 95% chance that we’ll see multiple 10-seeds advancing to the Second Round. Chances are looking good for multiple 11-6 upsets, too – about 50% chance we’ll see more than 1. Last year we only had one 12-5 upset, and this year there’s about a 74% chance we’ll have at least 1, but the likelihood of more than that is only around 33%.

Here are the double-digit teams with at least a 20% chance to win their First Round game.

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Top Final Four Contenders in the West Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

No surprise – Gonzaga’s the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is 5-Connecticut’s not insignificant 12% chance of winning the region. There is a 91% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…

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Top Final Four Contenders in the East Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

The East Region is home to the double digit seed with the highest Final Four probability. It’s only 4%, but 10-San Francisco has best chances of a Final Four run of any double-digit seed in the bracket.

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Top Final Four Contenders in the Midwest Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

The Midwest Region is the most top heavy in the bracket – there is a 63% chance the winner is one of the top 2 seeds. We also find the weakest 3 and 4 seeds here – the 5 and 6 seeds are more likely to win the region.

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Top 2022 NCAA Tournament Championship Contenders

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.

This year’s model has been trained and the simulation of the tournament completed. According to the simulation results, these are the teams with the best chances to win the tournament.

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Top Final Four Contenders From the “Wide Open” South Region

Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.

The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 42% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There is a 95% chance the winner will be one of nine teams…

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Think Twice Before Considering These Teams for a Final Four Run

Correctly picking the champ is the most important part of winning any bracket competition. Hitting on a Final Four pick or two is also key to having a top scoring NCAA Tournament bracket. Identifying teams that don’t measure up in some way to past Final Four teams can help. Here’s a thread where I list 18 teams (seeded 3-11) that should at least think twice about before making them our Final Four picks.

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Only The Best Conferences Produce NCAA Tournament Champs

We already know teams from mid-major conferences don’t win the NCAA Tournament. More than that, though, we can set a minimum conference strength for a team to have a shot at winning it all.

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2022 Providence and other good-seed-bad-computer-rank teams from past tournaments

“I’m sorry, Dave. Providence isn’t as good as their record and projected seed would indicate.”

With 2 weeks and some change until Selection Sunday, Providence has built an excellent resume. Projected as a 4-seed in the Bracket Matrix, Providence is:

  • 22-3 overall
  • 8-2 road/neutral record
  • First place in a strong (potentially 7 tournament bids) Big East
  • 5-2 Q1 record
  • 12-3 Q1/Q2 record

…and yet, receive little-to-no love from the computers. Providence is ranked 28, 31, 41, and 46 in the NET, Sagarin, BPI (ESPN), and KenPom rankings – not even close to what we’d expect from a 4-seed.

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Final Four Teams Win Away From Home

Loyola-Chicago won 78% of their games away from home before an epic Final Four run in 2018

Winning Away From Home

So your team is pretty good this year.  Congrats.  It’s still February and realistically there are 20 or so CBB squads out there that have a shot at making a run.  Maybe even a deep run, a Cinderella run.  So, what is the one thing that your team needs to be paying attention to right now?  Indeed, what is one of the primary historical key indicators that if your team achieves now, you can confidently stand around that watercooler one month out and say, “Seriously, we have a shot to not only go to the Elite Eight, but this is the year we are a Final Four team!”

It’s simpler than you might think, and while it should be noted that by itself this indicator is not a fool proof identifier, it is incredibly common among Final Four participants.  It is simply this:

Final Four teams win on the road all season long. 

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