Top 5 Most Likely 2018 NCAA Champions

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the champion correctly (in standard scoring formats).  The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.  Good thing you’re reading this post.

BracketResearch.com has developed a computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results.  Click here to see just how amazing.  Read on to see this year’s most likely teams to win the NCAA Tournament.

Continue reading

New Computer Model Produces Amazing Results

BracketResearch.com has developed a computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results.  The model simulates the NCAA Tournament, providing results that you can use to dramatically increase your chances of winning your bracket pool.  I will share simulation results in separate posts, but continue reading to see how well the model performed when I tested it on the past five tournaments.

Continue reading

2018 Teams With Champ DNA

A thorough analysis of past national championship teams has shown that they have certain traits and characteristics in common.  Visit the DNA of a National Championship Team page for a full explanation of those attributes. Scroll all the way to the bottom of this post if you just want to see a list of this year’s contenders.

Caution:  Not all teams that fit this description win the championship.  Every year there are between 3 and 10 contenders with the right DNA that don’t win it all and might even make an early exit from the tournament (for example, 2016 Michigan State losing in the First Round or Kentucky’s second round exit in 2004).

Here’s a breakdown of this year’s contenders.

Continue reading

The Quarterfinal Rule – teams that will not win the championship – 2018

The Quarterfinal Rule has never been broken.  It states that any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship.  Here is a list of teams eliminated from contention by the Quarterfinal Rule last year.  I’ll keep this year’s list up to data as we progress through the week.

2018 Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention

  • Ohio State – Lost to Penn State in the Big Ten Quarterfinals
  • Auburn – Lost to Alabama (Roll Tide!) in the SEC Quarterfinals

 

Teams With the Most Q1 Wins Dominate the NCAA Tournament

Does it really matter how many Quadrant 1 wins a team has?  Do Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins give any indication of how a team will perform in the NCAA Tournament?  Yes, it does.  I’ve already shown how each of the last 15 champions entered the tournament with at least nine Q1 wins.  Here is a deeper look at teams with 9+ Q1 wins and how they did in the tournament.

Continue reading

Tournament Winners Have LOTS of Q1 Wins

Does it really matter how many Quadrant 1 wins a team has?  Do Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins give any indication of a team’s title chances in the NCAA Tournament?

Yes!  And there are only three teams so far, this year, that have enough.

Continue reading

1-Seeds Have an Easier Path to the Elite 8 than 2-Seeds

As we head down the final stretch of the season, several teams are still in contention for receiving a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday.  One could reasonably argue that the difference in quality between 1-seeds and 2-seeds (the best 8 teams) isn’t very big.  In fact, 1-seeds have faced a 2-seed in their regional final (Elite 8 game) 45 times, and the series is split 23-22 with a slight advantage to the 1-seeds.  So does it really matter whether a team gets a 1-seed?  Yes it does!

Continue reading

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 02-15-2018

Overrated teams are the best candidates for early exits from the NCAA Tournament.  Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

Continue reading

Championship Contender Watch – 2-12-2018

I have identified a set of traits commonly found in NCAA Tournament champions.  We’re far enough along in the season to start tracking the teams that fit the mold and those that are close.  Here are the teams currently exhibiting real contender characteristics.

Continue reading

Most Over- and Under-rated Teams 02-12-2018

Overrated teams are the best candidates for early exits from the NCAA Tournament.  Comparing the latest AP Poll rankings with the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com, here are the most over- and under-rated NCAA Men’s Basketball teams.

Continue reading