Picking First Round Upsets can either wreck your bracket from the get-go or give you a head start on your way to bracket pool glory. Historically, March Madness averages 6-7 First Round upsets, Unless you’re going for the perfect bracket, though, I wouldn’t take too many risks here. Here is a collection of computer model results from me (BracketResearch), KenPom, BartTorvik, ESPN, and EvanMiya, that can help make more informed decisions when it’s time to pick some First Round upsets.

According to the models, we might be in store for another chalky tournament. The average model prediction is that we’ll only see 4 upsets this year. Let’s hope not.

Observations

• 10-Santa Clara and 11-VCU are tied (by avg) for most likely teams to pull off the First Round upset. They are they only two teams to receive a win probability greater than 50% from a model
  • 10-Santa Clara – 51.6% from Torvik
  • 11-VCU – 53.4% from EvanMiya
• Most likely 12-5 upset: High Point and Akron are essentially tied for most likely 12 to beat a 5
• 13-Hofstra is the most likely 13-4 upset pick
• Not very likely to see a 14, 15, or 16 seed win
• According to the models, the most likely 1-seed to fall to a 16-seed is Duke, with a 1.4% chance of losing to Siena