Author Archives: gotstremph

Most Likely East Region Winners – Who Can Challenge Duke?

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

Duke is a big favorite to win the East Region, but our sweet model only gives them a 56% chance to do it. The following table gives the chances of the other top contenders in the East.

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Most Likely Team to Win the “Wide Open” West Region

Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.  Click here to see just how amazing.

The West Region is the only one without a team with Champ DNA. Historically this means the region is wide open. (Last two such regions were won by 11-seed Loyola-Chicago and 7-seed South Carolina). Our model gives about an 80% chance the winner will be one of three teams…

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Top NCAA Tournament Championship Probabilities

To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the champion correctly (in standard scoring formats).  The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined.  Good thing you’re reading this post.

Using our sweet computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results.   Read on to see this year’s most likely teams to win the NCAA Tournament.

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Official List of 2019 National Championship Contenders

The most important key to winning your NCAA Tournament bracket pool is correctly picking the champion. Comparing this year’s top teams with the DNA of past champions, I’ve narrowed this list of contenders down to 6 teams. All of the following teams have the DNA of a champion. Pick one of these teams to win it all.

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Remember the Quarterfinal Rule

As the major conference tournaments get rolling this week, remember the Quarterfinal Rule – any team that fails to advance past their conference tournament quarterfinal WILL NOT win the national championship. The Quarterfinal Rule has never been broken.  I’ll update this post as top teams are eliminated before their conference semifinals. 

2019 Teams Eliminated from National Title Contention

LSU

Texas Tech

Purdue

Tournament Winners Have LOTS of Q1 Wins, But…

Does it really matter how many Quadrant 1 wins a team has?  Do Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins give any indication of a team’s title chances in the NCAA Tournament?

Yes!  But we only have RPI-based quadrant history. Because the new NET rankings are new and cannot be calculated for past seasons, we can’t analyze how useful they are yet.

So, looking at RPI-based Q1 wins, there are currently only three teams that have enough…

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One of These Teams Will Win the 2019 NCAA Tournament

These teams meet the AP Poll rank-criteria that all but 2 of the last 30 Champions have met. Once the tournament field is finalized on Selection Sunday (3/17), we will be able to narrow this group down to the few true contenders with my Champ DNA test.

2019 Early List of Championship Contenders

  1. Tennessee
  2. Duke
  3. Virginia
  4. Gonzaga
  5. Michigan
  6. Michigan State
  7. Kentucky
  8. Nevada
  9. North Carolina
  10. Marquette
  11. Kansas
  12. Virginia Tech

Updated Bracket Probabilities

Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out.  New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.

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Most Likely Busts – Top-Seeded Early Exits

An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.  Only 67% of 1-3 seeds make the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks.  According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit.  Most interesting observation:  four of these teams have a greater than 50% chance of going home early…

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