Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes.
The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 52% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There is a 95% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…
Use these tables to compare team computer ratings for the teams that are in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. These ratings have predictive value and can be used to make relative team strength comparisons. Check out computer rankings for these teams here.
While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!!
Check out the new Projected NCAA Tournament Team Comparison page. It includes two tables showing a list of teams along with some of the metrics the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will use as selection criteria, including NET, Kenpom, and Sagarin ranks, along with NET Quadrant records.
One table includes teams projected to make the tournament according to the Bracket Matrix, a compilation of bracketologists’ projections from across the internet.
The other table includes all NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball teams.
This year, I’ve gathered some bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my calculations and so we can score them all after the fact to see whose models performed best. I was able to find predictions at the following websites:
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16.
Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely computer model (which is amazing), here are the most likely top-seeded teams to make an early exit. Most interesting observation: three of these teams have a greater than 40% chance of going home early…
Bracket Buster definition: a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8
Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5. So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times with my sweet computer model (click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes), here are this year’s most likely Bracket Busters.