Group projections

How our model sees all 12 groups. Each team’s chance to advance to the knockout round is shown on the right. Solid shading = projected top two; lighter shading = third place but more likely than not to advance as one of the eight best third-place teams. Click any team for its full page.

Group A

1 Mexico#1586%2 Czech Republic#3874%3 South Korea#2574%4 South Africa#5939%

Group B

1 Switzerland#1994%2 Canada#3083%3 Bosnia and Herzegovina#6353%4 Qatar#5537%

Group C

1 Brazil#693%2 Morocco#884%3 Scotland#4365%4 Haiti#8326%

Group D

1 Turkey#2288%2 United States#1674%3 Paraguay#4162%4 Australia#2747%

Group E

1 Germany#1097%2 Ecuador#2382%3 Ivory Coast#3469%4 Curaçao#8219%

Group F

1 Netherlands#794%2 Japan#1877%3 Sweden#3760%4 Tunisia#4438%

Group G

1 Belgium#990%2 Iran#2081%3 Egypt#2966%4 New Zealand#8532%

Group H

1 Spain#2>99%2 Uruguay#1789%3 Saudi Arabia#6132%4 Cape Verde#6828%

Group I

1 France#197%2 Norway#3173%3 Senegal#1369%4 Iraq#5727%

Group J

1 Argentina#396%2 Austria#2466%3 Algeria#2860%4 Jordan#6442%

Group K

1 Portugal#593%2 Colombia#1280%3 Uzbekistan#4955%4 DR Congo#4640%

Group L

1 England#496%2 Croatia#1185%3 Panama#3362%4 Ghana#7325%

Advance probabilities come from simulating the group stage thousands of times using each team’s model rating. “Advance” means reaching the Round of 32. Group-winner and deeper-round odds are on the title simulator.