I’ve gathered bracket probabilities from other websites to compare with my model’s results. Here are the numbers from those models as well as a composite (average of all the models) probability for every team reaching each round. Apologies to the other play-in teams, but I assumed Rutgers, Indiana, Texas A&M-CC, and Wright State win their […]
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. Only 67% of 1-3 seeds reach the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. This year, we once […]
A dark horse Final Four team is a 5+ seed that reaches the Final Four. Even though 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4, 10 of the last 11 tournaments have had at least 1 5+ seed in the Final Four. The following teams have the best chances among this year’s “longshots.”
Bracket Buster definition: a 6+ seeded team that reaches the Elite 8. Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – about 81% of all Elite 8 teams were 1-5 seeds. So when a 6+ seed reaches the Elite 8, most people’s brackets are busted. […]
Let’s call a Cinderella team a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16. This means they would pull off at least one but probably two upsets in the first weekend and have glory and praise heaped upon them for the next week before they play in the Sweet 16. Almost every year, we see at […]
It sure is fun to correctly pick the inevitable First Round upsets. This year, both 10-Loyola-Chicago and 10-Miami are favorites to win their First Round games. 10-seeds have some very strong model results, translating to a 95% chance that we’ll see multiple 10-seeds advancing to the Second Round. Chances are looking good for multiple 11-6 […]
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. No surprise – Gonzaga’s the favorite. Perhaps the biggest surprise is 5-Connecticut’s not insignificant 12% chance of winning the region. There is a 91% chance the winner will be one of seven teams…
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. The East Region is home to the double digit seed with the highest Final Four probability. It’s only 4%, but 10-San Francisco has best chances of a Final Four run of any double-digit seed in the bracket.
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. The Midwest Region is the most top heavy in the bracket – there is a 63% chance the winner is one of the top 2 seeds. We also find the weakest 3 and 4 seeds here – […]
To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the right champ (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. This year’s model has been trained and the simulation of the tournament completed. According to the simulation results, these are the teams with the best chances to […]
Win your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. The South Region is the most competitive this year. By that, I mean there is only a 42% chance one of the top 2 seeds will win the region – the lowest chance of any region. There […]
Correctly picking the champ is the most important part of winning any bracket competition. Hitting on a Final Four pick or two is also key to having a top scoring NCAA Tournament bracket. Identifying teams that don’t measure up in some way to past Final Four teams can help. Here’s a thread where I list […]
With 2 weeks and some change until Selection Sunday, Providence has built an excellent resume. Projected as a 4-seed in the Bracket Matrix, Providence is: 22-3 overall 8-2 road/neutral record First place in a strong (potentially 7 tournament bids) Big East 5-2 Q1 record 12-3 Q1/Q2 record …and yet, receive little-to-no love from the computers. […]
Winning Away From Home So your team is pretty good this year. Congrats. It’s still February and realistically there are 20 or so CBB squads out there that have a shot at making a run. Maybe even a deep run, a Cinderella run. So, what is the one thing that your team needs to be […]
Last week’s AP Poll narrowed our list of contenders to 12 teams. 30 of the last 32 champs ranked in the top 12, seven weeks before the tournament started. At the end of the regular season, we’ll be able to narrow the list to the key handful of teams that are built like a champ.
5 NCAA basketball teams on upset alert this week: Could Duke lose again? Badgers Bracketology: Where experts see Wisconsin men’s basketball’s standing in the NCAA Tournament These Facts Make It Impossible For Baylor Not To Repeat As NCAA Tournament Champs Now NCAA Basketball: Buy or sell Duke, Kansas, Arizona, Purdue, and Kentucky? Even though Ohio […]
Here are the remaining undefeated men’s basketball teams in the 2021-22 season Why LSU game can help prove Kentucky basketball is legitimate contender Bracketology: Purdue jumps up to a No. 1 seed , Big 12 has eight in projected NCAA Tournament bracket update CBB Analytics is Bringing Advanced Stats to College Basketball Teams
College basketball this week: Top 10 games to watch, including huge SEC showdowns Let the (SEC) games begin: Who’s hot, who’s not as league play starts Wednesday night Omicron might prove to be toughest opponent for Arizona Wildcats, rest of Pac-12 Should Kentucky basketball be considered the SEC favorite entering league play? 8 special men’s […]
Here are the remaining undefeated men’s basketball teams in the 2021-22 season Missouri Valley Basketball: Can anyone challenge Loyola Chicago for title? Ohio State’s Big Ten title odds improve following 2-0 start in conference play
2022 March Madness: Complete schedule, dates, TV times Here are the remaining undefeated men’s basketball teams in the 2021-22 season Commentary: no need to panic over Zags’ on-court struggles 30 takeaways from the first month of the men’s college basketball season Gonzaga Reclaims March Madness Odds After Purdue’s Loss Ranking the final 8 unbeaten teams […]
The 10 most surprising men’s college basketball teams through the first month, according to Andy Katz UNC Basketball: Tar Heels on the rise in updated Bracketology projections Top 10 most surprising teams so far in college basketball Bracketology 2022: Murray State and Belmont hunting at-large berths
Win your bracket pool using this list of top contenders to win the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, with win probabilities. Win probabilities are from simulating the tournament 10,000 times using matchup probabilities from a sophisticated prediction model.
Use these tables to compare team computer rankings for the teams that are in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Rankings include NET, RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and ESPN’s BPI, SOS, and SOR. “Avg” is the average of the NET, RPI, POM, SAG, and BPI.
While I wasn’t able to post and keep some pages up to date this season, I will continue to drop pure gold analysis/info/tips all week. Predictions, probabilities, metrics, and more! Stay tuned, come back often, and dominate your bracket pool!! Let’s gooooooo!!!!!!
What having the toughest schedule means for NCAA tournament success March Madness 2020: Conference tournament brackets, scores, schedules, NCAA Tournament automatic bids, updates Six Things We Learned From the Final Weekend of the College Hoops Regular Season
Selection Sunday 2020: March Madness Selection Show on CBS will reveal NCAA Tournament bracket Odds for Each CBB Bubble Team Making March Madness Pre-Conference Tourneys Bubble Tracker: Here are the 23 March Madness teams fighting to play in NCAA tournament 5 mid-majors that can win the NCAA Tournament 10 teams that could steal a bid […]
NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years 10 CBB Stars Who Can Take Over the 2020 Men’s NCAA Tournament 5 teams that need a late push to boost NCAA tournament seeding NCAA preparing for possible coronavirus impact on March Madness College basketball picks: What’s the deal with these mystery teams? […]
NCAA Basketball: BYU, Darius Quisenberry top mid-major performers of the week What to know before you pick a team that shoots lots of 3s BEFORE YOU BET THE MARCH MADNESS BRACKET, CIRCLE THESE MID-MAJOR CINDERELLA TEAMS 2020 NCAA tournament bracketology: Examining potential No. 1 seeds for March Madness Poor rebounding, stagnant offense dooming Arizona in […]
NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years Behind dominance of Udoka Azubuike, Kansas should be NCAA Tournament favorite BYU a Final Four contender? At least one college basketball expert thinks so Seton Hall has extra gear that makes anything possible in March Shockers lose another heartbreaker to Bearcats, fall closer […]
College basketball’s biggest winners and losers: Baylor, San Diego State suffer setbacks Kansas makes its case as NCAA tournament’s top No. 1 seed with road victory over Baylor Bubble watch: Which teams damaged tournament hopes, bolstered credentials? Bracketology 2020: Buy or sell ACC Basketball teams on the bubble 3 Reasons Kentucky Will Win 2020 NCAA […]
Early NCAA Tournament sleepers, busts and most likely champion Which conferences make the most of their NCAA tournament seeds? Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation Five NCAA tournament bubble teams that need strong finishes to avoid missing field Starting Five: No. 1 Baylor hosting No. 3 Kansas in Big 12 tops college […]
68 predictions for the 2020 NCAA tournament, made in February 2020 NCAA tournament bracketology: Why Big East teams could win on Selection Sunday Bracketology 2020: Buy or sell Providence, Cincinnati, VT, South Carolina, and NC State Can Villanova get back to the Final Four earlier than expected? Q&A With Joe Lunardi: His 2020 Cinderella, Final […]
NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years Why Michigan State is the Big Ten’s best hope for a national title How Much Does Seeding Really Matter in the Men’s NCAA Tournament? Leading NCAA Tournament Contenders Lack Top-Tier NBA Draft Prospects Bracketology 2020 Bubble Watch: Breaking down at-large contenders ESPN’s Joe […]
NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation Forde Minutes: John Beilein’s College Market, Predicting Conference Races and More Top of AP poll steady as Baylor, Kansas set collision course 5 men’s basketball teams that might make the NCAA tournament for the […]
College basketball’s biggest winners and losers from another packed Saturday slate College basketball scores, winners & losers: Duke standing tall in the ACC, Seton Hall falls again MEN’S COLLEGE BASKETBALL HAS EIGHT UPSETS SATURDAY AS NINE RANKED TEAMS LOSE, INCLUDING NO. 5 LOUISVILLE Bubble Banter: Georgetown lands massive win over No. 19 Butler
NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years Bubble Banter: Saturday’s action on the bubble heats up Bracketology 2020: Buy or sell Memphis, Purdue, Texas, Florida and Wisconsin 5 SEC teams projected to make NCAA Tournament in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology SoCon Basketball: Can this be a two-bid league in 2019-20 […]
Ranking the Most Unstoppable Offenses in College Basketball College basketball picks: Can anyone touch projected No. 1 seeds? What College Basketball’s Talent Drain Might Mean for March Madness 2020 NCAA tournament bracketology: Kansas makes its case for top overall No. 1 seed Why Baylor men’s basketball really is good enough to win the national championship […]
Unranked in preseason, these seven teams are now Final Four sleepers Only 11 schools still have a legit shot to snag a No. 1 seed in the 2020 NCAA Tournament ESPN Computer Model Sees 3 National Title Frontrunners San Diego State is college basketball’s last unbeaten team. Be very skeptical. Rutgers Is Actually Good at […]
Men’s College Basketball Has Been Chaotic. But Just Wait Until The Tourney Bracketology 2020: Gonzaga, Maryland and Purdue among biggest winners Bracketology 2020: Villanova, Michigan State among this week’s losers March Madness 2020: Predicting NCAA Tournament risers and fallers among top 16 seeds in bracket preview Don’t forget about Belmont in the muddled OVC race […]
Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, SDSU Top Seeds in 2020 NCAA Tournament Bracket Preview NCAA Basketball: Top 16 breakdown, belief in Maryland, and more weekly takeaways Biggest Takeaways from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s Top 16 Reveal College basketball scores, winners & losers: Kansas’ Bill Self wins No. 700; West Virginia slips a seed line Bilas: This […]
NCAA March Madness Bracket Preview: Early reveal of top 16 shows how selection committee is evaluating teams 2020 NCAA tournament: Top 16 reveal date, time, TV channel, what to know Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation College Basketball Expert Picks: Maryland-Illinois, Seton Hall-Villanova, Duke-UNC and More Three under-the-radar threats to make noise […]
Bubble Banter: Cincinnati lands a massive win for their tourney hopes Kansas Basketball: Why Jayhawks are the “elite team” we’ve been searching for Running through college hoops’ top title contenders Bubble Watch: Is it automatic bid or bust for Northern Iowa? Cards not playing with edge of NCAA championship contender First-year phenoms mostly absent in college […]
These five NCAA tournament bubble teams will be dangerous in March Madness Biggest Winner and Loser from Each Noteworthy CBB Conference with 1 Month to Go Complete list of CBB conference tournament dates, locations Stats don’t lie: Louisville basketball one of five teams capable of winning it all Let’s talk about at-large resumes: East Tennessee […]
Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation Forde Minutes: Everything You Need to Know About the 2019-20 Season Three Reasons Why Dayton Can Win the 2020 National Title Two keys to predicting a major college basketball upset How a men’s basketball team does in the NCAA tournament when it earns its best-ever seed
The Other Top 25: San Diego State is the new number one, Rhode Island surges and Harvard falls Deep 3 with T.O.: Advanced outlook for ACC teams and the NCAA Tournament Mid-season update: 3-point shooting in men’s college basketball is pretty much back to normal in 2020 Maryland guard Cowan puts winning ahead of individual […]
Bracketology 2020: Rhode Island, BYU and Auburn among biggest winners Meet the new college basketball powers that can dominate March ACC struggling to construct 2020 NCAA Tournament teams beyond Duke, Louisville and Florida State NCAA bracketologists are in love with the Big Ten. But don’t be fooled Bracketology Losers: Indiana, Virginia Tech among this week’s […]
Bubble Banter: Xavier, Wisconsin land massive wins for their bubble standing Is Virginia an NCAA Tournament team? A look at the Cavaliers’ postseason resume College basketball scores, winners and losers: Eight Top 25 teams fall to unranked opponents We had three Big Upsets in The BIG-EAST on Saturday ESPN’s NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: First look […]
College basketball enters a new month, but count on the same unpredictability College Basketball Expert Picks: Can Favorites Avoid Tricky Weekend Traps? This Virginia team isn’t always easy to watch, but we haven’t seen anything quite like it How Steve Pikiell Defied the Odds and Resurrected Rutgers Basketball
College Basketball Power Rankings: Who’s Impressing Entering February? Big Ten basketball adapts well to NET ranking tool What did past Final Four teams look like when February started? UNC Basketball: Can the Tar Heels use their February schedule to make a NCAA Tournament push? Bracketology: Will Syracuse’s hot run result in an NCAA Tournament bid?
Overlooked national title contender Dayton has surprisingly built an all-time elite offense Ranking College Basketball’s Best Potential 2020 March Madness Cinderella Teams BPI says these college basketball teams are better than their places in the standings Edwards: The Dayton Flyers are going to cut the nets down in Atlanta on April 6 Bracketology Bubble Watch: […]
Mid-Majors To Watch Before March Madness | College Basketball Futures Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large contention Do college basketball conference titles predict success in the NCAA tournament? SoCon midseason report: After peak season, league even deeper this year Where Alabama’s NCAA tournament hopes stand after 4 straight wins Bracketology: Tigers hopes of […]
NCAA tournament: Top 16 reveal date, time, TV channel, what to know 8 teams most likely to land a No. 1 seed in March Madness Who are the biggest overachievers, underachievers in top leagues? Rutgers vs Illinois, overrated teams and other key questions Michigan, NC State and DePaul going the wrong way Three Things To […]
What does Kentucky basketball need to do to earn a top-four NCAA Tournament seed? Arizona, Stanford exposing flaws in NCAA tournament selection tool Bracketology 2020: Duke/Syracuse, Saint Mary’s/BYU among week’s best matchups Last time Xavier and UC Bearcats both missed NCAA Tournament was 1984-85 Loss to Michigan State was missed opportunity for Gophers to impress […]
Check out the new Projected NCAA Tournament Team Comparison page. It includes two tables showing a list of teams along with some of the metrics the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will use as selection criteria, including NET, Kenpom, and Sagarin ranks, along with NET Quadrant records. One table includes teams projected to make the tournament […]
The wonderful Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker is back! (click here) What is a Quadrant? This is the third year the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is using a quadrant classification system as one of their selection criteria. The quadrant classification breaks down a team’s schedule and results in four quadrants with the purpose of […]
I’m not a “bracket of integrity” I-only-fill-out-one-bracket type of guy. I’m a numbers guy. I like to hedge, play the averages, and most of all take risk. So I always fill out several brackets, but here’s a pretty good one.
Comparison of the predicted probabilities (from multiple websites) associated with the performance of teams in the NCAA Tournament. Comparisons include probability of winning it all, reaching the Final 4, First Round upsets, being a Cinderella, being a bracket buster, and exiting the tournament early.
Now that everybody’s brackets are all busted up, I thought I’d re-run my sweet model (click here to see just how amazing it is) and see how the bracket probabilities for each team pan out. New favorites are Villanova and Kansas (by far), followed by West Virginia and Kentucky.
An early exit for a top seed is losing in the first weekend of the tournament, or in other words failing to reach the Sweet 16. Only 67% of 1-3 seeds make the Sweet 16, so this happens often enough that you should at least consider it while making your picks. According to my lovely […]
My definition of a Dark Horse Final Four Team: a 5+ seed team that reaches the Final Four. 83% of all Final Four teams have been seeded 1-4. Most interesting observation: three of these teams are from the East Region…
My definition of a Bracket Buster: an 6+ seed team that reaches the Elite 8. Most bracket fillers conservatively stick to the highest seeds when picking their Elite 8 teams, and rightly so – 81% of all Elite 8 teams were seeded 1-5. So when a 6+ seed team reaches the Elite 8, most people’s […]
My definition of a Cinderella team: an 11+ seed team from a mid-major conference that reaches as least the Sweet 16. Correctly identify a Cinderella team in your bracket, and you’ll not only look like a genius, but also increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. Based on simulating the tournament thousands of times […]
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. Among the most likely upsets in the first round, we’ve got a nice mix of 10, 11, 12, and 13 seeds. Only two teams, though, […]
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. You like Michigan State to reach the Final Four? You might want to reconsider…
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. The fourth and fifth most likely teams to win the East Region may surprise you.
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model. Click here to see just how amazing it is at predicting NCAA Tournament outcomes. The West Region had, by far, the most lopsided results, with one team winning 60% of the tournament simulations.
Increase your chances of winning your bracket pool by using simulation results from BracketResearch.com’s computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament outcomes. Click here to see just how amazing. The South Region is the most wide open, with five teams having at least a 10% chance to win it and advance to the Final Four.
To win your bracket pool, you’ve gotta pick the champion correctly (in standard scoring formats). The final game is worth as much as the first 32 games combined. Good thing you’re reading this post. BracketResearch.com has developed a computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results. Click here to see just how amazing. Read on […]
BracketResearch.com has developed a computer model that amazingly predicts NCAA Tournament results. The model simulates the NCAA Tournament, providing results that you can use to dramatically increase your chances of winning your bracket pool. I will share simulation results in separate posts, but continue reading to see how well the model performed when I tested […]